Fayoum won 1-0 over Media while the battle for promotion and relegation entered its final stage in the Egyptian Second Division

Wednesday, the 7th of October 2020, 3 pm local time (12 noon UTC), Alassiouty Sports Resort, Egypt, the 21st round (second to last) of the Egyptian Second Division, Group A.
Fayoum SC have finally won their first match since the competition resumed after the long break caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: 1-0 over Media. Unfortunately for them, it's too late, as they are already relegated to the Third Division, regardless. However, one should point that their opponents, Media, still had mathematical chances to avoid relegation if they won this match - so there was tension in the field, it was not just a simple game between two already relegated and careless teams. Eventually, the home side scored, by means of Adham Hassan, right before the half time: 1-0 (45'). In the second half, nobody was able to score another goal, so the score stayed the same until the end, and the verdict for both teams is now the same: they are going together to the Third Division, unless the Egyptian FA decides otherwise.

Fayoum SC starting XI against Media. Source: Fayoum SC Facebook page

There were other matches in this round which captured the attention of many. First and foremost, the promotion derby between National Bank and Beni Suef, which may prove decisive. National Bank won 2-0 and are now again leaders of the group and main candidates for promotion, before the final round. Beni Suef dropped two places and are now third, with only theoretical chances to regain the top spot and to get to the Premier League. Beni Suef manager Hassan Moussa was sacked after the game, despite the overall very good season. Aluminium won away at Dayrout and are now second, just one point behind National Bank.
The battle for promotion might be somewhat influenced by the other battle, to avoid relegation. Things are clear for Dayrout, Tahta, Fayoum and Media, which are already relegated. One spot still remains, and the main contenders are Telephonat Beni Suef and Sohag, while Al Minya might also get there theoretically. However, Al Minya's win away at Tahta largely saved them from relegation, as they only need a draw in their last game at home against Shaban Qena. Sohag lost to Shaban Qena, while Telephonat only drew at home against Asyut Petroleum, so probably one of these two teams would be relegated. They are equal in terms of points, but Sohag have the advantage of head-to-head matches, which is the first ranking criterion if two teams finish with the same number of points.
Back to the battle for promotion, National Bank needs to win their last game away at Asyut Petroleum in order to finish on top and to promote to the Premier League. There are certain chances that this would happen, especially because they are very motivated, while the match has no special importance for Asyut Petroleum, which are classified in the neutral zone, in fifth place. However, one may never know, and many surprising results occurred in the Second Division. So, in case National Bank only succeeds a draw, they might be overtaken by Aluminium, if Aluminium win. But Aluminium will play their last game away at Sohag, which also need to win in order to avoid relegation. That is why the battle for promotion might be influenced by the battle to avoid relegation. Sohag will be no easy opponent for Aluminium. Beni Suef will probably win their last home game against already-relegated Tahta, but their head-to-head record against National Bank is negative, so they might get to the top only if National Bank lose and Aluminium do not win. Let's admit that this is an unlikely scenario. In conclusion, National Bank are now favourites to win Group A and to promote to the Egyptian Premier League, after spending just one year in the Second Division; it would be a second consecutive promotion.
In terms of relegation, Telephonat Beni Suef seem to be the team most likely to stay on the eighth place, which leads down to the Third Division. Their last game is away at Media, which have just lost to Fayoum and therefore lost any chance to avoid relegation. Telephonat needs a better result than Sohag in order to outrank them. So, even if Telephonat win, it would mean nothing if Sohag also win. As shown before, Sohag's main problem is that they play against a team, Aluminium, which is just one point away from the top spot, and still might get there and to the Premier League. It is quite difficult to anticipate which of these two teams will be relegated, but Sohag have better chances to escape relegation, at least on paper. Mathematically speaking, Al Minya might also be relegated, but only if they lose their last game at home against Shaban Qena, while both Sohag and Telephonat win. Again, an unlikely possibility, but all possibilities should be on the table.
Fayoum will actually play the only match which does not involve teams fighting for something, other than perhaps a better position in the table. Dayrout, in their last game at home, might overtake Tahta in the table, and escape the shame of finishing last, while Fayoum might get in front of Media, if they get a better result than Media in the last round. However, the ninth or tenth place would mean the same, unfortunately: relegation to the Third Division.
Full results, table and fixtures:

Round 21 (7 October 2020)

National Bank – Beni Suef 2-0

Telephonat – Asyut Petroleum 1-1

Dayrout – Aluminium 2-4

Tahta – Al Minya 2-4

Fayoum – Media 1-0

Shaban Qena – Sohag 1-0

 

Table

 

1	National Bank	21	12	7	2	28-11	43	Promotion to Premier League
2	Aluminium	21	13	3	5	33-17	42
3	Beni Suef	21	12	5	4	29-12	41
4	Shaban Qena	21	9	8	4	17-16	35
5	Asyut Petroleum	21	9	5	7	24-23	32
6	Al Minya	21	8	5	8	26-22	29
7	Sohag	21	7	6	8	18-17	27
8	Telephonat	21	6	9	6	20-21	27	Relegation to the Third Division
9	Media (R)	21	5	7	9	20-30	22	Relegation to the Third Division
10	Fayoum (R)	21	6	3	12	17-23	21	Relegation to the Third Division
11	Tahta (R)	21	2	7	12	16-34	13	Relegation to the Third Division
12	Dayrout (R)	21	3	3	15	19-41	12	Relegation to the Third Division

Round 22 – last round (12 October 2020)

Media – Telephonat

Sohag – Aluminium

Asyut Petroleum – National Bank

Al Minya – Shaban Qena

Dayrout – Fayoum

Beni Suef – Tahta